Scroll down for the animated satellite image!
Predicting the weather in Pagosa Springs is usually hit and miss.
The weather programs you will find online that give forecasts for
Pagosa Springs are based on weather information from equipment on Wolf Creek Pass. This means conditions reported at that location are usually
vastly different from the actual conditions in town. However, those forecasts can be helpful to find out when a storm is coming. The best weather site for Pagosa Springs can be found at www.PagosaCam.com and is maintained by an amateur meteorologist. The forecasts are usually pretty accurate.
If you would like to do your own weather forecasting, invest in a simple analog barometer, the kind with a dial and a moveable needle that marks what "normal" pressure is, and use an online satellite map to track the storm flow. With your barometer and the NOAA animated satellite image below, you can amaze your friends by planning an outdoor day when the forecast calls for a foot of snow. Here's what to do:
- Over the course of a few weeks, determine what the "normal" pressure is on the barometer. Be aware that many types of analog barometers won't be calibrated to the pressure at this altitude. Knowing the exact barometric isn't important, however. What you are looking for is the spot to mark as normal so you can see when the pressure is rising or falling.
- Once you have a mark on your barometer for fair weather days, you can start to watch when the needle drops. In winter, our big storms occur when a low pressure system draws the moisture into the area from a southwest direction. In years past, a phenomenon known to avid snowboarders as the "four corners high" would prevent storms from reaching our area. A high pressure area that covered the four corners region would send storms either north or south of us. This year, you can watch the weather on tv or online to track the low pressure, or use the barometer to watch the pressure drop when the storms come rolling in.
- The next thing to watch for is a satellite image that shows the flow of the storm. You can second guess online forecasts when they predict a lot of snow but the storm flow is from a northerly direction. Those storms usually hit the mountain ranges to the north and west of us and don't pack much of a punch when they finally get here. The best set-up for a Pagosa Springs snow storm is a system that develops in the Pacific ocean in southern California and draws up into Colorado. This is the southwest flow that will bring a lot of moisture to our area. Using an animated map, such as the one below, you can usually accurately predict whether or not we will get hit by a storm. If the clouds are flowing down from the north, or are staying too far south, we usually won't get much of anything.
- Use the information from the barometer and the animated satellite image to see what the storm is going to do. Remember, if it's raining in San Diego, the animated map shows a flow coming from the southwest, and your barometer is dropping, you probably want to get your snow shovel ready!
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